IIA Pacific Report
(June 2025 No.27) IIA Pacific Report
Author
admiia
Date
2025-06-26
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The Institute of International Affairs has released the new Pacific Report No. 27.
In this issue, Professor Nam-sik In of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy contributed an article titled <Reading Middle East Geopolitics in 2025: Shifts in the Structure of Hegemonic Competition>.
Professor In explains that the Axis of Resistance is a Shiite-aligned network centered around Iran, extending its influence across Iraq (Kataib Hezbollah, Badr Organization), Syria (the Assad regime), and Lebanon (Hezbollah).
Saudi Arabia grouped together Gulf monarchies along with Egypt and Jordan to form what is commonly referred to as the “Sunni Arc”—a semicircular alliance. This semicircular geopolitical coalition was aimed at countering Iran’s “Shiite Belt,” stretches through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
Despite growing domestic and international pressure on the Netanyahu government to agree to a ceasefire, Israel’s sustained large-scale offensive and precision strikes against pro-Iranian forces shifted the tide of the conflict.
The Gaza crisis erupted, the Hamas leader was assassinated within Iran, and even Hezbollah's long-time leader was eliminated—naturally plunging Iranian public sentiment into deep unrest.
Alongside the two major regional powers—Iran and Saudi Arabia—which had long vied for regional dominance, Türkiye has now joined the fray, forming a trilateral competition reminiscent of a Middle Eastern version of the Three Kingdoms.
Whereas Iran had extended its influence in Syria and Lebanon through the promotion of Shia sectarian identity, Saudi Arabia now appears poised to assert regional leadership by mobilizing around the broader Arab cause—shifting the geopolitical narrative from sectarian alignment to pan-Arab solidarity.
Professor In comments that looking ahead, in the triangular hegemony competition among Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, the most critical external actors will be the United States and Israel.
In this issue, Professor Nam-sik In of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy contributed an article titled <Reading Middle East Geopolitics in 2025: Shifts in the Structure of Hegemonic Competition>.
Professor In explains that the Axis of Resistance is a Shiite-aligned network centered around Iran, extending its influence across Iraq (Kataib Hezbollah, Badr Organization), Syria (the Assad regime), and Lebanon (Hezbollah).
Saudi Arabia grouped together Gulf monarchies along with Egypt and Jordan to form what is commonly referred to as the “Sunni Arc”—a semicircular alliance. This semicircular geopolitical coalition was aimed at countering Iran’s “Shiite Belt,” stretches through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
Despite growing domestic and international pressure on the Netanyahu government to agree to a ceasefire, Israel’s sustained large-scale offensive and precision strikes against pro-Iranian forces shifted the tide of the conflict.
The Gaza crisis erupted, the Hamas leader was assassinated within Iran, and even Hezbollah's long-time leader was eliminated—naturally plunging Iranian public sentiment into deep unrest.
Alongside the two major regional powers—Iran and Saudi Arabia—which had long vied for regional dominance, Türkiye has now joined the fray, forming a trilateral competition reminiscent of a Middle Eastern version of the Three Kingdoms.
Whereas Iran had extended its influence in Syria and Lebanon through the promotion of Shia sectarian identity, Saudi Arabia now appears poised to assert regional leadership by mobilizing around the broader Arab cause—shifting the geopolitical narrative from sectarian alignment to pan-Arab solidarity.
Professor In comments that looking ahead, in the triangular hegemony competition among Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, the most critical external actors will be the United States and Israel.
